Abstract
Conducting clinical trials is becoming increasingly challenging lately due to spiraling costs, increased time to market, and high failure rates. Patient recruitment and retention is one of the key challenges that impact 90% of the trials directly. While a lot of attention has been given to optimizing patient recruitment, limited progress has been made towards developing comprehensive clinical trial monitoring systems to determine patients at risk and potentially improve patient retention through the right intervention at the right time. Earlier research in patient retention primarily focused on using deterministic frameworks to model the inherently stochastic patient journey process. Existing generative approaches to model temporal data such as TimeGAN or CRBM , face challenges and fail to address key requirements such as personalized generation, variable patient journey, and multi-variate time-series needed to model patient digital twin. In response to these challenges, current research proposes ClinicalGAN to enable patient level generation, effectively creating a patient's digital twin. ClinicalGAN provides capabilities for: (a) patient-level personalized generation by utilizing patient meta-data for conditional generation; (b) dynamic termination prediction to enable pro-active patient monitoring for improved patient retention; (c) multi-variate time-series training to incorporate relationship and dependencies among different tests measures captured during patient journey. The proposed solution is validated on two Alzheimer's clinical trial datasets and the results are benchmarked across multiple dimensions of generation quality. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed ClinicalGAN outperforms the SOTA approach by 3-4 × on average across all the generation quality metrics. Furthermore, the proposed architecture is shown to outperform predictive methods at the task of drop-off prediction significantly (5-10% MAPE scores).