Abstract
Background: The optimal management of patients with acute pancreatitis is directly related to the early detection of the mild, moderate, or severe forms of the disease, which remains a continuous challenge despite the availability of various severity scores. The aim of this study was to identify prognostic factors with the highest predictive value specific to the local patients and elaborate the score to identify the severe cases. Materials and Methods: A retrospective observational cohort study included 172 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis. Personal, clinical, laboratory, and imaging factors and their influence on the severity of acute pancreatitis were evaluated. Results: Etiology nonA-nonB (any etiology except unique alcoholic or biliary etiology), presence of diabetes mellitus, the pain Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), White Blood Cells (WBCs), and CRP (C-reactive protein) levels were found to be directly associated with the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). Prediction scores were calculated to estimate disease severity using the following regression equations: Prediction Acute Pancreatitis Severity (PAPS) score I = 1.237 + 0.144 × nonA-nonB (0 = no, 1 = yes) + 0.001 × WBC1 + 0.027 × VAS0 and PAPS score II = 1.189 + 0.001 × CRP (mg/L) + 0.135 × nonA-nonB etiology (0 = no, 1 = yes) + 0.025 × VAS0 - 0.047 × CA1. The PAPS Score II demonstrated the best performance. At a cut-off value of 1.248, the score had 80% sensitivity, 80.9% specificity, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 28.6%, a negative predictive value (NPV) of 97.7%, and an accuracy of 80.8%. For a cut-off value of 221.5 mg/L, the accuracy of CRP was 81.4% for predicting severe AP. Conclusions: The PAPS score II is an easy-to-use, fast, and affordable score for determining cases of severe disease for patients diagnosed with AP.