Abstract
Predicting wildfire spread behavior is an extremely important task for many countries. On a small scale, it is possible to ensure constant monitoring of the natural landscape through ground means. However, on the scale of large countries, this becomes practically impossible due to remote and vast forest territories. The most promising source of data in this case that can provide global monitoring is remote sensing data. Currently, the main challenge is the development of an effective pipeline that combines geospatial data collection and the application of advanced machine learning algorithms. Most approaches focus on short-term fire spreading prediction and utilize data from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for this purpose. In this study, we address the challenge of predicting fire spread on a large scale and consider a forecasting horizon ranging from 1 to 5 days. We train a neural network model based on the MA-Net architecture to predict wildfire spread based on environmental and climate data, taking into account spatial distribution features. Estimating the importance of features is another critical issue in fire behavior prediction, so we analyze their contribution to the model's results. According to the experimental results, the most significant features are wind direction and land cover parameters. The F1-score for the predicted burned area varies from 0.64 to 0.68 depending on the day of prediction (from 1 to 5 days). The study was conducted in northern Russian regions and shows promise for further transfer and adaptation to other regions. This geospatial data-based artificial intelligence (AI) approach can be beneficial for supporting emergency systems and facilitating rapid decision-making.