Abstract
Groundwater is the fundamental component of the hydrological system that acts as a major factor in comprehensions of the physical processes in both the land surface and the atmosphere. Determining groundwater, which directly affects the agricultural productivity of semi-arid mountainous regions, is crucial. Mountain ecosystems, once abundant with flowing water, now face immense pressure from a changing climate, evident in the drying of springs and the diminishing flow of groundwater. Ensuring a steady flow of water, fair access to it, and responsible use are the cornerstones of a secure future for mountain communities. This study aims to assess the groundwater potential zones using remote sensing and a geospatial approach in the Mustang Valley's rural municipalities (Thasang and Gharapjhong). Nine factors were assigned to assess the groundwater potential map: slope, drainage density, lineament density, geology, soil, land use/land cover, rainfall, aspect, and soil moisture. The Bayesian weights of evidence model was used to delineate the groundwater potential zone. The study categorized groundwater potential across the region, creating five zones: very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. These zones covered 0.6 %, 12.4 %, 51.2 %, 35.5 %, and 0.3 % of the study area. The accuracy of the groundwater potential map was assessed by comparing its predictions with the actual locations of springs, using the area under the curve metric. The receiver operating characteristics curve analysis yielded an area under the curve of 0.7226, indicating a 72.26 % accuracy in predicting the presence of groundwater. The findings of this paper contribute to a better understanding of groundwater potential zones, which can support policymakers and planners for hydrological, meteorological, and crop planning applications in this climatically vulnerable region.