Abstract
BACKGROUND: It is critical that disability-disaggregated indicators of educational outcomes are developed and monitored in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) to demonstrate whether progress is being made towards educational equality. OBJECTIVES: To design, test and analyse new indicators of grade progression for learners with disabilities relative to learners without disabilities in South Africa. To determine which indicators are the most appropriate for future monitoring. METHOD: We undertook the first-ever quantitative analysis of grade repetition and age-for-grade of learners with disabilities relative to learners without disabilities using student-level data collected in the new Education Management Information System (EMIS). Using a longitudinal student-level dataset extracted from EMIS, we conducted cohort analyses of grade progression from 2017 onwards, disaggregated by gender and disability category. RESULTS: On average, learners with disabilities experienced grade repetition more frequently than learners without disabilities and were older than their peers. Grade repetition rates decreased from 2017 to 2023 in mainstream schools in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province but increased in special schools. Comparatively, 54% of learners without disabilities who started Grade 1 in 2017 progressed to Grade 7 without repetition, versus 20% of learners with disabilities (Gauteng) and only 12% of learners with disabilities (KZN). CONCLUSION: The high rates of grade repetition among learners with disabilities suggest that reasonable accommodations and curriculum differentiation have not been fully implemented in schools. CONTRIBUTION: There has been a substantial decline in reporting of learner disability status in Gauteng province since 2022 which warrants further investigation.