Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to develop a predictive nomogram for intermediate-risk differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients after fixed 3.7GBq (100mCi) radioiodine remnant ablation (RRA). METHODS: Data from 265 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy with central lymph node dissection (CND) and received RRA treatment at a single institution between January 2018 and March 2023 were analyzed. Patients with certain exclusion criteria were excluded. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for a non-excellent response (non-ER) to RRA. A nomogram was developed based on the risk factors, and its performance was validated using the Bootstrap method with 1,000 resamplings. A web-based dynamic calculator was developed for convenient application of the nomogram. RESULTS: The study included 265 patients with intermediate-risk DTC. Significant differences were found between the ER group and the non-ER group in terms of CLNM>5, Hashimoto's thyroiditis, sTg level, TgAb level (P < 0.05). CLNM>5 and sTg level were identified as independent risk factors for non-ER in multivariate analysis. The nomogram showed high accuracy, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.833 (95% CI = 0.770-0.895). The nomogram's predicted probabilities aligned closely with actual clinical outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: This study developed a predictive nomogram for intermediate-risk DTC patients after fixed 3.7GBq (100mCi) RRA. The nomogram incorporates CLNM>5 and sTg levels as risk factors for a non-ER response to RRA. The nomogram and web-based calculator can assist in treatment decision-making and improve the precision of prognosis information. Further research and validation are needed.