Abstract
Spray dried dispersion particle size is a critical quality attribute that impacts bioavailability and manufacturability of the spray drying process and final dosage form. Substantial experimentation has been required to relate formulation and process parameters to particle size with the results limited to a single active pharmaceutical ingredient (API). This is the first study that demonstrates prediction of particle size independent of API for a wide range of formulation and process parameters at pilot and commercial scale. Additionally we developed a strategy with formulation and target particle size as inputs to define a set of "first to try" process parameters. An ensemble machine learning model was created to predict dried particle size across pilot and production scale spray dryers, with prediction errors between -7.7% and 18.6% (25th/75th percentiles) for a hold-out evaluation set. Shapley additive explanations identified how changes in formulation and process parameters drove variations in model predictions of dried particle size and were found to be consistent with mechanistic understanding of the particle formation process. Additionally, an optimization strategy used the predictive model to determine initial estimates for process parameter values that best achieve a target particle size for a provided formulation. The optimization strategy was employed to estimate process parameters in the hold-out evaluation set and to illustrate selection of process parameters during scale-up. The results of this study illustrate how trained regression models can reduce the experimental effort required to create an in-silico design space for new molecules during early-stage process development and subsequent scale-up.