Abstract
BACKGROUND: Several studies have shown that the risk of mortality due to COVID-19 is high in patients with COPD. However, evidence on factors predicting mortality is limited. RESEARCH QUESTION: Are there any useful markers to predict mortality in COVID-19 patients with COPD?. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 689 patients were included in this study from the COPET study, a national multicenter observational study investigating COPD phenotypes consisting of patients who were followed up with a spirometry-confirmed COPD diagnosis. Patients were also retrospectively examined in terms of COVID-19 and their outcomes. RESULTS: Among the study patients, 105 were diagnosed with PCR-positive COVID-19, and 19 of them died. Body mass index (p= 0.01) and ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index (p= 0.01) were higher, whereas predicted FEV(1) (p< 0.001) and eosinophil count (p= 0.003) were lower in patients who died of COVID-19. Each 0.755 unit increase in the ADO index increased the risk of death by 2.12 times, and each 0.007 unit increase in the eosinophil count decreased the risk of death by 1.007 times. The optimum cut-off ADO score of 3.5 was diagnostic with 94% sensitivity and 40% specificity in predicting mortality. INTERPRETATION: Our study suggested that the ADO index recorded in the stable period in patients with COPD makes a modest contribution to the prediction of mortality due to COVID-19. Further studies are needed to validate the use of the ADO index in estimating mortality in both COVID-19 and other viral respiratory infections in patients with COPD.