Abstract
Aralia elata (Miq.) Seem. (A. elata), a deciduous shrub in the Araliaceae family, is a prized wild edible vegetable among residents in the upper reaches of the Dadu-Minjiang River. Its tender shoots are valued for their unique flavor and rich nutrition, serving not only as an edible plant but also as an economic crop with medicinal properties. This study utilized an ensemble model to simulate the potential distribution of A. elata in this region, predicting the impacts of future climate change on its distribution, and ecological niche. Additionally, a cultivation productivity evaluation model integrating ecological suitability and nutritional components was developed to delineate potential cultivation areas. Results showed that high-suitability habitats of A. elata span 0.64 × 10(4)km², primarily in block-shaped distributions in Tianquan and Baoxing Counties, with fragmented patchy and linear distributions at the junctions of Maoxian-Songpan and Maoxian-Heishui Counties, as well as within Songpan County. First-level cultivation areas, covering 0.33 × 10(4)km², are mainly located in eastern Tianquan and southern Baoxing Counties. Under future climate scenarios, the areas of potential suitable habitats and cultivation zones for A. elata will gradually expand with increasing temperatures, migrating toward higher-altitude regions, accompanied by enhanced niche migration. Extreme emission scenarios significantly improve core habitat quality, as indicated by these trends. Collectively, these findings provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable utilization of A. elata in the upper Dadu-Minjiang River region. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12870-025-07297-w.