Abstract
Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk calculators estimate the 10-year incident risk of myocardial infarction (MI), coronary artery disease (CAD) death, or stroke; however, they lack comprehensiveness and accuracy. Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) is a surrogate marker that may improve risk estimation acumen. The objective of this study was to derive ASCVD risk scores from historical data and determine whether these risk scores are associated with the history of subclinical CAD and CIMT. This retrospective cross-sectional study used an existing dataset of individuals with prediabetes. Subclinical CAD history was defined as the history of CAD, coronary plaque, or coronary revascularization without a history of MI. The online ASCVD Risk Estimator Plus calculator was used to derive individual risk scores. Chi-square or Fisher's exact tests for categorical variables and ANOVA for continuous variables detected differences among ASCVD risk categories. Linear regression of CIMT measurements on ASCVD risk scores ascertained ASCVD risk scores' utility in predicting CIMT measurements. The sample included 86 participants, 28% with a history of CAD, 60% male, and 95% White. No differences in risk scores existed between participants with or without CAD. Individuals with higher ASCVD risk scores were older (p ≤ .001) and had higher systolic blood pressure (p ≤ .001), CIMT arterial age (p = .003), mean IMT common (p ≤ .001), mean IMT maximum (p ≤ .001), and plaque burden (p = .02) measurements. ASCVD risk scores were significantly associated and moderately correlated with CIMT measurements. ASCVD risk scores were not associated with CAD history but were associated with CIMT measurements. While risk calculators provide a starting point for ASCVD risk estimation, physical tools like CIMT can diagnose ASCVD, categorize plaque quality, and track intervention efficacy. CIMT may be used for more direct ASCVD risk estimation. Risk scores are easily imputed from existing records but are only intended for incident risk, and their accuracy relies on the variables' availability and validity and the boundaries of the calculators.