Abstract
The return of El Niño in 2023 brought record global temperatures, an increase in forest fires, floods, heatwaves, and intense and severe droughts. How the climate of 2023 affected agricultural activities in West Africa is not yet known. This paper analyses the changes in the patterns of local climate variables during the planting season and the potential consequences for agricultural productivity in West Africa. The study uses the ERA5, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) datasets and performs a thorough spatio-temporal analysis and anomaly calculation of precipitation, air temperature, relative humidity, NDVI, drought, and soil moisture. Compared to the climatology, we observed early precipitation in March, high temperatures and humidity, low precipitation, and a loss of vegetation in the middle of the growing season (April to June). The direct influence of El Niño proved to be weak, suggesting that El Niño could be the cause, together with other factors such as global mean temperature and Atlantic circulation. Farmers in West Africa usually expect rainfall in early April to start the agricultural season. This shift in rainfall patterns can have a serious impact on agricultural activities and increase vulnerability to food insecurity in the region. Rather than relying solely on rainfall, we recommend the use of advanced irrigation techniques and the development of drought-resistant crops to combat the effects of El Niño in the future.