Abstract
Accurate forecasting of agricultural commodity prices is essential for market planning and policy formulation, especially in agriculture-dependent economies like India. Price volatility, driven by factors such as weather variability and market demand fluctuations, poses significant forecasting challenges. This study evaluates the performance of traditional stochastic models, machine learning techniques, and deep learning approaches in forecasting the prices of 23 commodities using daily wholesale price data from January 2010 to June 2024. Models assessed include Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Support Vector Regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Multilayer Perceptron, Recurrent Neural Networks, Long Short-Term Memory Networks, Gated Recurrent Units, and Echo State Networks. Results show that deep learning models, particularly Long Short-Term Memory and Gated Recurrent Units, outperform others in capturing complex temporal patterns, achieving superior accuracy across error metrics. The results indicate that deep learning models, particularly Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), demonstrate superior performance in capturing complex temporal patterns. For instance, the GRU model achieved a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 369.54 for onions and 210.35 for tomatoes, significantly outperforming the ARIMA model, which recorded RMSE values of 1564.62 and 1298.60, respectively. Furthermore, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for GRU was notably lower, at 14.59% for onions and 10.58% for tomatoes. These results underscore the efficacy of deep learning approaches in addressing the inherent volatility and nonlinear dynamics of agricultural commodity prices. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, traders, and farmers, enabling better market interventions, crop planning, and risk management. The study recommends exploring hybrid models and incorporating external factors like weather data to further enhance forecasting reliability.