Abstract
This study investigates the response mechanism of vegetation phenology to climate change in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 2001 to 2022, aiming to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of vegetation SOS, EOS, and LOS and their driving factors, and to provide a scientific basis for regional ecological management. Based on the EVI dataset, climate parameters were extracted by S-G filtering and dynamic thresholding method and combined with one-way linear regression, stability analysis, and partial correlation analysis to assess the vegetation climate changes and their responses to air temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, and surface temperature. The results showed that: (1) SOS advanced overall (0.29 d/a), EOS delayed (0.26 d/a), and LOS prolonged (0.56 d/a). (2) Significant trends of SOS advance and EOS postponement were observed in coniferous forests, agricultural fields, and natural vegetation, and EOS advance was significant in broadleaf forests. (3) In the future, SOS and EOS will continue to advance, and LOS of cropland will continue to extend. (4) Air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours have an advancing effect on SOS, surface temperature has a postponing effect on EOS, and precipitation and surface temperature have an extending effect on LOS. Vegetation climate change is affected by the complex interaction of climate factors, and the results of the study reveal its spatial and temporal evolution patterns and response mechanisms to climate change, providing an important reference for regional ecological assessment and management.