Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Predict running performances is very important for athletes and trainers. Sport researchers have therefore developed certain tools to predict running performances, but only in non-obstacle races. This study aimed to develop and test the validity and accuracy of an equation for predicting 3,000-m steeplechase performance (Perf(Steeple) ). METHODS: The official rankings of French runners for the 3,000-m track-running (Perf(3000) ) and 3,000-m steeplechase events were examined. Age, height and body mass were collected. From 146 included athletes, two groups were randomly composed: one comprising 80% of the sample (n = 117) to develop a simple equation to predict Perf(Steeple) (i.e., development group) and the other comprising the remaining 20% (n = 29) to test the validity and accuracy of the developed prediction equation (i.e., cross-validation group). RESULTS: The simple prediction equation included Perf(3000) and age: PerfSteeple = - 57, 165 + 1, 147 × Perf3000 + 0, 955 × age . No significant difference was noted between the actual and predicted performances. Predicted performances were significantly correlated with the actual ones, with a very high correlation coefficient (p < 0.001; r = 0.929). Bias and 95% limits of agreement were -5 ± 24 s, i.e., -0.8 ± 7.6%. In 95 of 100 new predictions, the difference between actual and predicted performance would be less or equal to-5 ± 24 s. DISCUSSION: The study confirms the validity and accuracy of the equation for predicting Perf(Steeple) . Predictions using this simple equation may be used in training and competitions for athletes and coaches. Perf(Steeple) = -57,165 + 1,147 X Perf(3000) + 0,955 X age.