Abstract
BACKGROUND: People with HIV (PWH) may have a higher risk of heart failure (HF) due to traditional and HIV-related factors. Incidence and risk prediction of HF in PWH are not well characterized. We aimed to quantify the risk of HF events in a global population of PWH with low-to-moderate estimated atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk. METHODS: HF incidence (events/1000 person years) was described overall and by demographic, HIV-specific, and HF factors, including estimated Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events 10-year risk of HF. Confirmed HF events included adjudicated HF hospitalization and adverse events identified via a standardized Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Archives HF query. RESULTS: We analyzed 7769 REPRIEVE (Randomized Trial to Prevent Vascular Events in HIV) participants from 5 global regions (median, 50 years; 31% female). Over a median follow-up of 5.6 years (interquartile range, 4.3-5.9), HF incidence was higher in women, among Black participants in high-income regions, participants in sub-Saharan Africa, and among those with preexisting hypertension and obesity compared with the absence of these factors. Current and nadir CD4+T-cell count, and HIV-1 RNA level were not related to the incidence of HF events. Median (Q1-Q3) Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events HF score was 1.66% (1.01-2.62). HF incidence was 1.65/1000 person-years (95% CI, 1.30-2.09). Expected number of HF events by Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events HF (n=73) was consistent with observed (n=67). CONCLUSIONS: Select demographics, clinical factors, and global regions contribute to a higher incidence of HF events among PWH. In PWH, the observed overall number of HF events aligned with the estimated Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events HF risk rates.