Abstract
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is characterized as a progressive dysfunction of the kidney. The estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) is widely recognized as a dependable marker of insulin resistance (IR). Nonetheless, the potential link between eGDR and CKD incidence remains insufficiently clarified. This study utilized data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). The outcome of this study was CKD events. We performed adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression, restricted cubic splines (RCS), and mediation analyses. Among the 6,737 participants followed for a median of 108 months, 1,356 (20.13%) developed CKD. Relative to the lowest quartile (Q1) of eGDR, the adjusted HR for the highest quartile (Q4) was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.72-0.99). Each standard deviation increase in eGDR was linked to a 7% reduction in CKD risk (HR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.88-0.99). The RCS curve indicated a linear relationship between eGDR and CKD risk (threshold = 8.21). The cardiovascular disease (CVD) significantly mediated 27.0% of the association between eGDR and CKD risk. This study demonstrates a significant inverse correlation between eGDR levels and CKD risk in middle-aged and elderly individuals within the Chinese population. Moreover, CVD emerges as a key intermediary linking eGDR and the heightened risk of CKD.