Genomic epidemiology unveils the dynamics and spatial corridor behind the Yellow Fever virus outbreak in Southern Brazil

基因组流行病学揭示了巴西南部黄热病病毒爆发背后的动态和空间走廊

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作者:Marta Giovanetti, Francesco Pinotti, Camila Zanluca, Vagner Fonseca, Taishi Nakase, Andrea C Koishi, Marcel Tscha, Guilherme Soares, Gisiane Gruber Dorl, Antônio Ernesto M L Marques, Renato Sousa, Talita Emile Ribeiro Adelino, Joilson Xavier, Carla de Oliveira, Sandro Patroca, Natalia Rocha Guimarae

Abstract

Despite the considerable morbidity and mortality of yellow fever virus (YFV) infections in Brazil, our understanding of disease outbreaks is hampered by limited viral genomic data. Here, through a combination of phylogenetic and epidemiological models, we reconstructed the recent transmission history of YFV within different epidemic seasons in Brazil. A suitability index based on the highly domesticated Aedes aegypti was able to capture the seasonality of reported human infections. Spatial modeling revealed spatial hotspots with both past reporting and low vaccination coverage, which coincided with many of the largest urban centers in the Southeast. Phylodynamic analysis unraveled the circulation of three distinct lineages and provided proof of the directionality of a known spatial corridor that connects the endemic North with the extra-Amazonian basin. This study illustrates that genomics linked with eco-epidemiology can provide new insights into the landscape of YFV transmission, augmenting traditional approaches to infectious disease surveillance and control.

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