Abstract
Australia's population is growing, ageing and exhibiting increasing heterogeneity with respect to birthplace and ethnic composition. Yet, little is understood about the levels of English language proficiency among the next generation of older migrants in Australia. Utilising a modified cohort-component model incorporating detailed language proficiency transition probabilities, we project birthplace populations by levels of English language proficiency to mid-century. Our results show that although Asian-born migrants tend to have lower levels of English proficiency, the majority of older migrants with poor proficiency are currently from a predominantly European background. In the future, we project a strong shift in the population of poor English speakers toward an Asian-born dominance as some European-born migrant groups dwindle in size and cohort flow increases population growth among older Asian migrants. Specifically, most of the population growth among older migrants with poor English proficiency occurs among Chinese and Mainland Southeast Asian migrants. However, we demonstrate that population growth among the total migrant population with poor proficiency is considerably lower than populations with good proficiency or from English-speaking households. Over the projection horizon, the total older migrant population with poor English proficiency increases by under 80,000 compared with an increase of 726,000 with good levels of proficiency and 518,000 in English-speaking households. However, we caution against conflating improved English language proficiency with a policy shift away from ethno-specific aged care services as culture, which is more than language, strongly influences perceptions of quality of aged care.