Abstract
Forage fishes are key energy conduits that transfer primary and secondary productivity to higher trophic levels. As novel environmental conditions caused by climate change alter ecosystems and predator-prey dynamics, there is a critical need to understand how forage fish control bottom-up forcing of food web dynamics. In the northeast Pacific, northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) is an important forage species with high interannual variability in population size that subsequently impacts the foraging and reproductive ecology of marine predators. Anchovy habitat suitability from a species distribution model (SDM) was assessed as an indicator of the diet, distribution and reproduction of four predator species. Across 22 years (1998-2019), this anchovy ecosystem indicator (AEI) was significantly positively correlated with diet composition of all species and the distribution of common murres (Uria aalge), Brandt's cormorants (Phalacrocorax penicillatus) and California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), but not rhinoceros auklets (Cerorhinca monocerata). The capacity for the AEI to explain variability in predator reproduction varied by species but was strongest with cormorants and sea lions. The AEI demonstrates the utility of forage SDMs in creating ecosystem indicators to guide ecosystem-based management.