Abstract
Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles create lasting biogeographic, demographic and genetic effects on ecosystems, yet the ecological effects of ice ages on benthic marine communities are unknown. We analysed long-term datasets to develop a niche-based model of southern Californian giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) forest distribution as a function of oceanography and geomorphology, and synthesized palaeo-oceanographic records to show that late Quaternary climate change probably drove high millennial variability in the distribution and productivity of this foundation species. Our predictions suggest that kelp forest biomass increased up to threefold from the glacial maximum to the mid-Holocene, then rapidly declined by 40-70 per cent to present levels. The peak in kelp forest productivity would have coincided with the earliest coastal archaeological sites in the New World. Similar late Quaternary changes in kelp forest distribution and productivity probably occurred in coastal upwelling systems along active continental margins worldwide, which would have resulted in complex shifts in the relative productivity of terrestrial and marine components of coastal ecosystems.