Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus

通过基于证据的共识完善登革热病毒传播的全球空间界限

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作者:Oliver J Brady, Peter W Gething, Samir Bhatt, Jane P Messina, John S Brownstein, Anne G Hoen, Catherine L Moyes, Andrew W Farlow, Thomas W Scott, Simon I Hay

Background

Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic

Conclusion

The map produced here provides a list of 128 countries for which there is good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries that have previously been classified as dengue-free by the World Health Organization and/or the US Centers for Disease Control. It also identifies disease surveillance needs, which we list in full. The disease extents and limits determined here using evidence consensus, marks the beginning of a five-year study to advance the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. Completion of this first step has allowed us to produce a preliminary estimate of population at risk with an upper bound of 3.97 billion people. This figure will be refined in future work.

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