Modelling the long-term health impact of COVID-19 using Graphical Chain Models brief heading: long COVID prediction by graphical chain models

Long-term sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection, namely long COVID syndrome, affect about 10% of severe COVID-19 survivors. This condition includes several physical symptoms and

The biological plausibility of the relationships between variables demonstrated by the GCM validates the efficacy of this approach as a valuable statistical tool for elucidating structural features, such as conditional dependencies and associations. This promising method holds potential for exploring the long-term health repercussions of COVID-19 by identifying predictive factors and establishing suitable therapeutic strategies.

96 patients with severe COVID-19 hospitalized in a non-intensive ward at the "Santa Maria" University Hospital, Terni, Italy, were followed up at 3-6 months. Data regarding present and previous clinical status, drug treatment, findings recorded during the in-hospital phase, presence of symptoms and signs of organ damage at follow-up were collected. Static and dynamic cardiac and respiratory parameters were evaluated by resting pulmonary function test, echocardiography, high-resolution chest tomography (HRCT) and cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET).

Twelve clinically most relevant factors were identified and partitioned into four ordered blocks in the GCM: block 1 - gender, smoking, age and body mass index (BMI); block 2 - admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and length of follow-up in days; block 3 - peak oxygen consumption (VO2), forced expiratory volume at first second (FEV1), D-dimer levels, depression score and presence of fatigue; block 4 - HRCT pathological findings. Higher BMI and smoking had a significant impact on the probability of a patient's admission to ICU. VO2 showed dependency on length of follow-up. FEV1 was related to the self-assessed indicator of fatigue, and, in turn, fatigue was significantly associated with the depression score. Notably, neither fatigue nor depression depended on variables in block 2, including length of follow-up. Conclusions: The biological plausibility of the relationships between variables demonstrated by the GCM validates the efficacy of this approach as a valuable statistical tool for elucidating structural features, such as conditional dependencies and associations. This promising method holds potential for exploring the long-term health repercussions of COVID-19 by identifying predictive factors and establishing suitable therapeutic strategies.