Abstract
The success of hematopoietic cell transplantation from an unrelated donor depends in part on the degree of Human Histocompatibility Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) matching between donor and patient. We present a structure-based analysis of HLA mismatching, focusing on individual amino acid mismatches and their effect on peptide binding specificity. Using molecular modeling simulations of HLA-peptide interactions, we find evidence that amino acid mismatches predicted to perturb peptide binding specificity are associated with higher risk of mortality in a large and diverse dataset of patient-donor pairs assembled by the International Histocompatibility Working Group in Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation consortium. This analysis may represent a first step toward sequence-based prediction of relative risk for HLA allele mismatches.