Abstract
Despite antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV persists in latently-infected cells ("the reservoir") which decay slowly over time. Here, leveraging >500 longitudinal samples from 67 people with HIV (PWH) treated during acute infection, we developed a novel mathematical model to predict reservoir decay from peripheral CD4+ T cells. Nonlinear generalized additive models demonstrated rapid biphasic decay of intact DNA (week 0-5: t1/2~2.83 weeks; week 5-24: t1/2~15.4 weeks) that extended out to 1 year. These estimates were ~5-fold faster than prior decay estimates among chronic treated PWH. Defective DNA had a similar biphasic pattern, but data were more variable. Predicted intact and defective decay rates were faster for PWH with earlier timing of ART initiation, higher initial CD4+ T cell count, and lower pre-ART viral load. These data add to our limited understanding of HIV reservoir decay at the time of ART initiation, informing future curative strategies targeting this critical time.