Abstract
Understanding the impacts and constraints of climate change on Ziziphus nummularia's geographical distribution is crucial for its future sustainability. In this study, we analyze information obtained from the field investigation, the distribution and response of climatic changes of Ziziphus nummularia by the use of ArcGIS analysis. The genetic diversity of 180 genotypes from three populations was studied by morphological attributes and simple sequence repeat (SSR). The results showed that the significant bioclimatic variable limiting the distribution of Z. nummularia was the mean temperature (bio 10_18.tif and bio19). Under the current climatic change, the suitable growth region of Z. nummularia is Swat (35.22° N, 72.42° E), while the future distribution would be Buner (34.39° N, 72.61° E), respectively. A total of 11 phenotypic traits were noted and had significant phenotypic variation among the traits. A total of 120 alleles were amplified. The alleles per locus ranged from 2 to 6, averaging 4.42, whereas PIC ranged from 0.33 to 0.79. Within a mean value of 0.67 per locus, expected heterozygosity was 0.57, observed heterozygosity was 0.661, and average gene diversity was 0.49. Flow estimates (6.41) indicated frequent gene flow within genotypes. The clustering, STRUCTURE, and PCoA analysis indicated Swat and Buner migration routes and evolution as well. The results indicated the prevalence of genetic variability and relationships among Z. nummularia across geographical boundaries had retained unique alleles. This may facilitate the development of agronomically desirable cultivars. However, climate change has impacted species distributions, requiring strategies to conserve genetic resources in different areas.