Matrix Metalloproteinase-2 and CKD Progression: The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Matrix metalloproteinase 2 (MMP-2) plays an important role in the development of fibrosis, the final common pathway of chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to assess the relationship between repeated measures of MMP-2 and CKD progression in a large, diverse prospective cohort. STUDY DESIGN: In a prospective cohort of Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) participants (N = 3,827), MMP-2 was measured at baseline. In a case-cohort design, MMP-2 was additionally measured at year 2 in a randomly selected subcohort and cases of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) halving or kidney replacement therapy (KRT) (N = 1,439). SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: CRIC is a multicenter prospective cohort of adults with CKD. EXPOSURE: MMP-2 measured in plasma at baseline and at year 2. OUTCOMES: A composite kidney endpoint (KRT/eGFR halving). ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Weighted Cox proportional hazards models for case-cohort participants. RESULTS: Participants were followed for a median of 4.6 years from year 2 and 6.9 years from the baseline. Persistently elevated MMP-2 (≥300 ng/mL at both baseline and year 2) increased the hazard of the composite kidney endpoint (HR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.07-2.42; P = 0.09) after adjusting for covariates. The relationship of persistently elevated MMP-2 was modified by levels of inflammation, with a 2.6 times higher rate of the composite kidney endpoint in those with high-sensitivity C-reactive protein < 2.5 g/dL at study entry. Heterogeneity of effect was found with proteinuria, with a baseline MMP-2 level of ≥300 ng/mL associated with an increased risk of the composite kidney endpoint (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.09-1.54) only with proteinuria ≥ 442 mg/g. LIMITATIONS: The observational study design limits causal interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated MMP-2 is associated with CKD progression, particularly among those with low inflammation and those with proteinuria. Future investigations are warranted to confirm the reduction in risk of CKD progression among these subgroups of patients with CKD.