Birthweight, mediating biomarkers and the development of type 2 diabetes later in life: a prospective study of multi-ethnic women.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this work was to investigate the prospective relationship between low birthweight (LBW) and type 2 diabetes risk later in life and the mediation effects of type 2 diabetes biomarkers linking LBW to type 2 diabetes risk. METHODS: We measured baseline plasma concentrations of various type 2 diabetes biomarkers in 1,259 incident type 2 diabetes cases and 1,790 controls in the Women's Health Initiative-Observational Study. Self-report birthweights of the participants were recorded. The total effect of LBW on type 2 diabetes risk was partitioned into effects that were mediated by a specific biomarker and effects that were not mediated by this biomarker, using counterfactual model-based mediation analysis. RESULTS: LBW was significantly associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes. Compared with women with birthweight 3.63-4.54 kg, women with LBW (<2.72 kg) had a multivariable-adjusted OR of 2.15 (95% CI, 1.54, 3.00). Insulin resistance (indicated by HOMA-IR) mediated 47% of the total effect. Decreased sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) concentration accounted for 24%, elevated E-selectin concentration accounted for 25% and increased systolic blood pressure accounted for 8% of the total effect of LBW on type 2 diabetes risk. (Due to interactions among different mediators, the sum of each individual mediator's contribution could exceed 100%, without an upper limit.) CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: LBW is directly predictive of higher risk of type 2 diabetes later in life. The effect of LBW on type 2 diabetes risk seems mainly mediated by insulin resistance, which is further explained by circulating levels of SHBG and E-selectin and systolic blood pressure. The study provides potential risk stratification in a population at greater risk of developing type 2 diabetes.