Abstract
BACKGROUND: The mental health of Chinese international student returnees is a critical concern impacting their well-being and successful reintegration into home society, especially in the post-COVID-19 era. This study examines how beliefs about changing living conditions, emigration intentions, and belief in fate influence depression levels among these returnees. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey collected data from 1,014 returnees through WeChat public groups. Depression levels were measured using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), and Bayesian analysis with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms was employed for statistical examination. FINDINGS: It was found that a stronger belief that changing one's living environment can bring happiness is associated with lower depression levels, highlighting the positive role of agency thinking in mental health. This association is moderated by emigration intentions and belief in fate. Specifically, among returnees who believe that changing living conditions enhances happiness, those with stronger intentions to emigrate from China exhibited lower depression levels, while those with a strong belief in fate showed higher depression levels. IMPLICATIONS: These results suggest that both agency and pathway thinking significantly affect the mental health of returnees. To support their well-being and reintegration, we recommend that policymakers create more diverse and inclusive environments within China that accommodate returnees' aspirations. Educational institutions should offer counseling services that bolster returnees' proactive strategies for achieving personal goals. Additionally, mental health interventions should address cultural beliefs, such as fatalism, which might hinder proactive coping mechanisms.