Predicting harmful alcohol use prevalence in Sub-Saharan Africa between 2015 and 2019: Evidence from population-based HIV impact assessment

预测2015年至2019年撒哈拉以南非洲地区有害饮酒的流行率:基于人群的艾滋病毒影响评估的证据

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Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Harmful alcohol use is associated with significant risks to public health outcomes worldwide. Although data on harmful alcohol use have been collected by population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA), there is a dearth of analysis on the effect of HIV/ART status on harmful alcohol use in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries with PHIA surveys. METHODS: A secondary analysis of the PHIA surveys: Namibia (n = 27,382), Tanzania (n = 1807), Zambia (n = 2268), Zimbabwe (n = 3418), Malawi (n = 2098), Namibia (n = 27,382), and Eswatini (n = 2762). Using R version 4.2, we analysed the uptake and correlates of harmful alcohol consumption in SSA. The cutoff point for statistically significant was P<0.05. RESULTS: Of the 12,460 persons, 15% used alcohol harmfully. Harmful alcohol use varied by countries and ranged from 8.7% in Malawi to 26.1% in Namibia (P<0.001). Being female or HIV-positive and on ART were associated with less-likelihood of harmful alcohol consumption however persons that were HIV-positive and not on ART was associated with higher likelihood of harmful alcohol use (OR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.32-1.69, P<0.001). The best performing models were Lasso or Super Learner or Random Forest were the best performing models while gradient boosting models or sample mean did not perform well. CONCLUSION: Harmful alcohol use was high. Harmful alcohol use varied by countries, sex, age, HIV/ART status and marital status. Therefore, there is a need to introduce or enforce harmful alcohol use control policies in SSA through taking into account these characteristics.

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