Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Viral Load (VL) monitoring is a crucial component of patient care during antiretroviral therapy (ART) but is not routinely available in many resource-constrained settings, where millions of patients will require care for decades to come. We hypothesise a serologic 'recent infection' test (Sedia LAg assay) which has a high dynamic range for detecting antigen-driven antibody response can provide informative proxies for VL trajectories. METHODS: A retrospective study where we analysed data linked via specimens in a well-described repository for recent infection test benchmarking (CEPHIA collaboration). Patient panels were comprised of 1) observations straddling ART start; 2) observations from a period of stable viral suppression; 3) observations straddling rebound after a period of viral suppression. We analysed an individual's Sedia LAg ELISA normalised optical density (ODn) trends within these categories. Using groups 2) and 3) we evaluated the specificity and sensitivity of a proposed proxy for "the latest observation is at a time of VL rebound"; proxy was defined as follows: we estimated patient-specific mean-previous-ODn for all observations with at least two preceding virally suppressed observations. We considered various thresholds to define both "VL suppression" and "ODn uptick". RESULTS: In regression analysis by category: 1) ODn gradients are statistically significantly negative just after ART-start (p = 0.010); 2) During periods of stable viral suppression, ODn tended to decline, but not statistically significantly, for a range of clinically meaningful "VL suppression" thresholds; 3) comparing ODn values just before, versus at, "VL rebound", ODn changes were statistically significantly increasing at rebound (p = 0.001). In the analysis comparing groups 2) and 3), at a Z score threshold of 0.8, the proposed proxy for a first viral rebound had an observed specificity and sensitivity both close to 90%. CONCLUSION: The high dynamic range of serological tests previously investigated for defining 'recent infection' has potential, as demonstrated using the Sedia LAg ELISA, to provide meaningful information about the success of ART, during treatment initiation, at times of stable suppression, and to flag possible viral rebound. It should be investigated how this can be combined with patient management workflows and (clinical and) other data, to provide efficiencies in long-term monitoring viral control in resource-limited settings.