Abstract
Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are pancreatic cancer precursors incidentally discovered by cross-sectional imaging. Consensus guidelines for IPMN management rely on standard radiologic features to predict pathology, but they lack accuracy. Using a retrospective cohort of 38 surgically-resected, pathologically-confirmed IPMNs (20 benign; 18 malignant) with preoperative computed tomography (CT) images and matched plasma-based 'miRNA genomic classifier (MGC)' data, we determined whether quantitative 'radiomic' CT features (+/- the MGC) can more accurately predict IPMN pathology than standard radiologic features 'high-risk' or 'worrisome' for malignancy. Logistic regression, principal component analyses, and cross-validation were used to examine associations. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value (PPV, NPV) were estimated. The MGC, 'high-risk,' and 'worrisome' radiologic features had area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.83, 0.84, and 0.54, respectively. Fourteen radiomic features differentiated malignant from benign IPMNs (p<0.05) and collectively had an AUC=0.77. Combining radiomic features with the MGC revealed an AUC=0.92 and superior sensitivity (83%), specificity (89%), PPV (88%), and NPV (85%) than other models. Evaluation of uncertainty by 10-fold cross-validation retained an AUC>0.80 (0.87 (95% CI:0.84-0.89)). This proof-of-concept study suggests a noninvasive radiogenomic approach may more accurately predict IPMN pathology than 'worrisome' radiologic features considered in consensus guidelines.