Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The COVID-19 pandemic led to changes in alcohol consumption in England. Evidence suggests that one-fifth to one-third of adults increased their alcohol consumption, while a similar proportion reported consuming less. Heavier drinkers increased their consumption the most and there was a 20% increase in alcohol-specific deaths in England in 2020 compared with 2019, a trend continuing through 2021 and 2022. This study aimed to quantify future health, healthcare, and economic impacts of changes in alcohol consumption observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This study used a validated microsimulation model of alcohol consumption and health outcomes. Inputted data were obtained from the Alcohol Toolkit Study, and demographic, health and cost data from published literature and publicly available datasets. Three scenarios were modelled: short, medium, and long-term, where 2020 drinking patterns continue until the end of 2022, 2024, and 2035, respectively. Disease incidence, mortality, and healthcare costs were modelled for nine alcohol-related health conditions. The model was run from 2020 to 2035 for the population of England and different occupational social grade groups. RESULTS: In all scenarios, the microsimulation projected significant increases in incident cases of disease, premature mortality, and healthcare costs, compared with the continuation of pre-COVID-19 trends. If COVID-19 drinking patterns continue to 2035, we projected 147,892 excess cases of diseases, 9,914 additional premature deaths, and £1.2 billion in excess healthcare costs in England. The projections show that the more disadvantaged (C2DE) occupational social grade groups will experience 36% more excess premature mortality than the least disadvantaged social group (ABC1) under the long-term scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol harm is projected to worsen as an indirect result of the COVID-19 pandemic and inequalities are projected to widen. Early real-world data corroborate the findings of the modelling study. Increased rates of alcohol harm and healthcare costs are not inevitable but evidence-based policies and interventions are required to reverse the impacts of the pandemic on alcohol consumption in England.