Abstract
BACKGROUND: Breast cancer, as one of the most common malignancies among women globally, presents a concerning incidence rate, underscoring the importance of addressing the treatment of its precursor lesion, ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Treatment decisions for DCIS, involving the balance between breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and mastectomy, remain an area requiring further investigation. This study aimed to compare influence of different surgical types on overall survival (OS) of patients with DCIS and identify specific subgroups with improved OS to develop an effective survival nomogram for patients. METHODS: Patient data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for DCIS cohort from 2010 to 2020 were retrieved. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curves were utilized to compare prognostic OS of patients with different surgical methods. Cox regression analysis was employed to determine prognostic factors and establish a nomogram to predict 3-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates. The model was confirmed by Concordance Index (C-index), calibration curves, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: A total of 71,675 patients with DCIS were included. Patients who underwent subcutaneous mastectomy (SM) demonstrated the best OS compared to other surgical types. Additionally, adjuvant radiotherapy or chemotherapy in combination with surgery significantly improved OS compared to surgery alone. Among DCIS patients aged ≤74 years, those who underwent SM benefited the most in terms of OS, while in the age group of 63-74 years, patients who underwent BCS had significantly higher OS than those who underwent total (simple) mastectomy (TM)/modified radical mastectomy (MRM). Multiple factors were associated with improved OS in DCIS patients, and these factors were integrated into the nomogram to establish OS predictions. The C-index, calibration curves, and ROC curves indicated that the nomogram was suitable for assessing patient prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that SM treatment yielded the best survival rates for DCIS patients, providing important guidance for future surgical decision-making. Moreover, identifying multiple independent factors related to survival and establishing reliable survival nomograms can assist physicians in developing personalized treatment plans and prolonging patient survival.