Abstract
BACKGROUND: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) was definitively authorized in France in 2017 after a two-year probationary period. The fact that the estimated number of MSM eligible for PrEP is still unknown is a barrier to this prevention tool's roll-out at the national level. This study aimed to estimate the number of MSM eligible for PrEP in France, and to evaluate the direct cost of its roll-out. METHODS: We used data from several sources including the Enquête Rapport au Sexe 2019-ERAS 2019 survey, the 2019 French population census from National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), and the National Public Health Agency's (Santé Publique France) 2016 health barometer survey. We also used data from previous studies which estimated the proportion of MSM who were sexually active in the 12 months prior to the studies, and HIV prevalence in MSM in France. Furthermore, we used data on PrEP drug costs from the French public drug database and data on medical examinations costs from the IPERGAY study. RESULTS: For 2019, the number of HIV seronegative MSM in France who were sexually active in the previous 12 months was estimated at 398,015. Of these, 142,379 (95%CI: 139,893-145,241) and 104,645 (95%IC: 102311-106979) were eligible for PrEP, based on the Menza score and on official French criteria, respectively. The overall estimated cost of PrEP roll-out in eligible MSM varied between € 317,685,216 and € 545,903,216 for official French criteria, which was higher than the estimated €432,240,851 and €742,753,074 according to the Menza score. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimations will enable policy makers to make evidence-based decisions about PrEP roll-out to MSM in France. To accelerate the process, it is important to decentralize PrEP delivery, authorize general practitioners to write prescriptions, and promote this prevention tool through information campaigns.