Abstract
BACKGROUND: Lost to follow-up (LTFUP) continues to threaten the sustainability of antiretroviral therapy (ART) benefits and success of ART programs. We determined the incidence and predictors of LTFUP among people living with HIV (PLHIV) on ART in Nyarugenge the Central Business District of Kigali city. METHODS: A cohort of PLHIV who initiated ART in 2018 was retrospectively studied for 24 months. Using health facility records, a person who had no record of contact with the health facility for at least three consecutive months was considered LTFUP. LTFUP incidence rates were computed, and the Fine-Gray's competing risk regression models were used to determine factors associated with time to first LTFUP. Generalized estimating equations (GEEs) were used to analyze repeated measurement outcomes of LTFUP and predictors of LTFUP. RESULTS: Of 950 participants, 581 (61.2%) were females and 866 (91.2%) were 15 to 49 years old. From 1,586.1 person years of observation (pyo), 148 participants got LTFUP for 451 times. The incidence rate to first event was 9.4 per 100 pyo (95%CI:7.9-10.9) and 31.8 per 100 pyo (95%CI:29.0-34.4) to multiple events. WHO stage, marital status, employment status and person to contact when PLHIV is not reachable were associated with time to first LTFUP event. However, an average participant with a contact person who was not a Community Health Worker (CHW) or a peer educator had higher incidence of LTUP (aIRR = 2.69, 95%CI: 1.43-5.06), an average single patients had higher incidence of LTFUP (aIRR = 1.74, 95%CI: 1.28-2.34) compared to married/co-habiting, and an average self-employed had higher incidence of LTFUP (aIRR = 1.51, 95%CI: 1.14-2.01) compared to participants employed by others. Furthermore, an average PLHIV living out-of-the health facility catchment area had higher incidence of LTFUP (aIRR = 1.55, 95%CI: 1.19-2.01) compared to an average PLHIV living in the health facility catchment area whereas, an average children initiated on first line had lower incidence of LTUP (aIRR = 0.43, 95%CI: 0.21-0.86) compared to adults. CONCLUSION: Using CHW and peer educators as contact persons can help to reduce LTFUP while, targeted sensitization and service delivery are needed for single, self-employed and, patients living out of the health facility catchment area.