Abstract
BACKGROUND: Non-invasive methods are the first choice for liver fibrosis evaluation in chronic liver diseases, but few studies investigate the ability of combined methods to predict outcomes. METHODS: 591 chronic hepatitis C patients with baseline liver stiffness (LSM) by FibroScan and hyaluronic acid measurements were identified retrospectively. The patients were grouped by baseline LSM: < 10kPa, 10-16.9kPa, and 17-75kPa. Primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and liver-related mortality, analyzed using cox regression and competing risk regression models, respectively. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 46.1 months. Prevalence of cirrhosis at baseline was 107/591 (18.1%). Median LSM was 6.8kPa (IQR 5.3-11.6) and divided into groups, 404/591 (68.4%) had a LSM < 10kPa, 100/591 (16.9%) had a LSM between 10-16.9kPa and 87/591 (14.7%) had a LSM between 17-75kPa. There were 69 deaths, 27 from liver-related disease. 26 patients developed cirrhosis and 30 developed complications of cirrhosis. The mortality rate in the 17-75kPa group was 9.7/100 person-years, compared to 2.2/100 person-years and 1.1/100 person-years in the 10-16.9kPa and <10kPa groups (p<0.005). Liver-related mortality increased 10-fold for each group (p<0.005). Cirrhotic complications occurred almost exclusively in the 17-75kPa group, with an incidence of 10.3/100 person-years, compared to 1.8/100 person-years and 0.2/100 person-years in the 10-16.9kPa and <10kPa groups (p<0.005). Median hyaluronic acid in the 17-75kPa group was approximately 200ng/mL. Patients with a LSM 17-75kPa had significantly higher risks of death, liver-related death, and complications to cirrhosis if their hyaluronic acid measurement was more than or equal to 200ng/mL at baseline, with hazard ratios of 3.25 (95% CI 1.48-7.25), 7.7 (95% CI 2.32-28), and 3.2 (95% CI 1.35-7.39), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of LSM and circulating hyaluronic acid measurements significantly improved prognostic ability, relative to LSM alone. Combined static and dynamic markers of liver fibrosis could provide superior risk prediction.