Abstract
IMPORTANCE: The utility of emerging lipid markers-apolipoprotein B (apoB) and lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a])-for improving atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk assessment beyond traditional lipid measures remains uncertain, particularly in young adults. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate associations of traditional and emerging lipid markers with ASCVD and assess the incremental value of emerging markers beyond established risk models. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This prospective cohort study included adults aged 18 years or older without cardiovascular disease from 3 US cohort studies (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults, the Framingham Heart Study Offspring, and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA]). Data were analyzed from April to June 2025. EXPOSURES: Lipid markers, including low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, non-high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, remnant cholesterol, total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio, apoB, and Lp(a). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Hazard ratios (HRs) for incident ASCVD per-SD increase in lipid marker levels, estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for demographic and clinical factors, and model performance metrics (Harrell concordance index [C-index], net reclassification improvement [NRI], and mean calibration) comparing models including the risk estimated by the Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events (PREVENT) base equations against models that additionally included each lipid marker. RESULTS: Among 10 519 participants (mean [SD] age, 48.3 [15.7] years; 53.0% female), 1103 ASCVD events occurred during a median follow-up of 21.3 (IQR, 16.5-26.0) years. ApoB was positively associated with ASCVD events, especially in younger adults aged 18 to 39 years (adjusted HR [AHR] per-SD increase, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.30-1.79) vs those aged 40 years or older (AHR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.06-1.20) (P < .001 for interaction). Lp(a) as a continuous variable was associated with a marginal increase in ASCVD in adults aged 40 years or older (AHR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.00-1.16) but not in younger adults (AHR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.87-1.19) (P = .61 for interaction). When dichotomized (>50 vs ≤50 mg/dL), Lp(a) was associated with ASCVD in adults aged 40 years or older (AHR range, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13-1.64) but not in younger adults (AHR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.66-1.45) (P = .42 for interaction). Adding apoB to 10-year ASCVD risk estimated by the PREVENT base equations was associated with improved risk reclassification in younger adults (continuous NRI, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.23-1.09) but not in those aged 40 years or older (continuous NRI, 0.16; 95% CI, -0.05 to 0.27). ApoB was also associated with improved 30-year risk reclassification in younger adults (continuous NRI, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.02-0.84). Dichotomized Lp(a), but not continuous Lp(a), was associated with improved 10-year NRI only in MESA (0.13; 95% CI, 0.03-0.24). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study of 10 519 adults, adding apoB to PREVENT-estimated ASCVD risks was associated with improved risk reclassification, particularly in younger adults. However, the clinical importance of these modest improvements remains uncertain.