Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Parkinson's disease (PD) has become a public health concern with global ageing. With a focus on PD, this study sought to project its burden and trends at the national, regional and worldwide levels between 1990 and 2021. STUDY DESIGN: Population-based study. METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 provided the PD burden data. The GBD data are considered globally and regionally representative, as it integrates multiple data sources and employs standardised estimation methods. The age-standardised rate (ASR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were used to estimate trends in the incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of PD from 1990 to 2021. ASR was used to calculate the EAPCs using a linear regression model. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict future trends up to 2046. RESULTS: Globally, the overall ASR of PD incidence, prevalence, DALYs and mortality increased from 1990 to 2021. The EAPCs were 1.09 (95% CI: 1.07 to 1.11) for incidence, 1.52 (95% CI: 1.49 to 1.54) for prevalence, 0.32 (95% CI: 0.28 to 0.36) for DALYs and 0.18 (95% CI: 0.13 to 0.23) for mortality. The incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALYs of PD in 2021 were higher in men than in women. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 18.52 per 100 000 in men and 12.92 per 100 000 in women (EAPC: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.13 vs 1.07, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.09). The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) was 157.42 per 100 000 in men and 121.84 per 100 000 in women (EAPC: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.67 to 1.73 vs 1.25, 95% CI: 1.22 to 1.27). The ASMR was 6.57 per 100 000 in men and 3.59 per 100 000 in women (EAPC: 0.21, 95% CI: 0.14 to 0.28 vs -0.01, 95% CI: -0.04 to 0.03). The ASDR was 97.12 per 100 000 in men and 81.23 per 100 000 in women (EAPC: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.33 to 0.42 vs 0.14, 95% CI: 0.10 to 0.18). From 1990 to 2021, the burden of PD remained consistently higher in men than in women, with the gender difference widening with age. The prevalence, incidence, DALYs and mortality rates of PD increased with age before declining, peaking in the 80-84 age group for prevalence and incidence, while peaking in the 90-94 age group for mortality. DALY rates peaked in the 85-89 age group. The ASR of incidence and prevalence increased significantly in Norway (EAPC=3.39, 95% CI: 3.15 to 3.64; EAPC=5.04, 95% CI: 4.65 to 5.43). Lesotho was the nation with the highest rise in age-standardised DALYs for PD (EAPC=1.67, 95% CI: 1.41 to 1.93). The United Arab Emirates had the fastest increase in age-standardised mortality for PD (EAPC=1.98, 95% CI: 1.24 to 2.71). The global ASPR of PD is projected to show a continuous upward trend. CONCLUSIONS: From 1990 to 2021, there were rising trends in the prevalence and burden of PD in most areas and nations worldwide. Our research indicates that the management and control of PD need significant improvement, particularly in light of the ageing population.