Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Assessing aggressive biology at early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis remains challenging. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is the only clinical biomarker of aggressive HCC. In this study, AFP, Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive AFP (AFP-L3), and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) were measured at diagnosis prior to transplant evaluation and first cycle liver-directed therapy (LDT). METHODS: The prospective cohort included 207 patients who received LDT as a bridge/downstage to transplant or definitive treatment plan between 2016 and 2022. Plasma AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP levels were measured at diagnosis and analyzed with other factors associated with treatment response and time-to-progression. RESULTS: Biomarker phenotyping revealed 41% were triple negative, 30% expressed multiple biomarkers, and 12% express all 3 biomarkers. The biomarker profile was associated with target/overall response rate and time-to-progression (P < .001). Profiling stratified 1-year progression risk in nontransplant candidates, driven by coexpression of AFP and DCP in multivariate analysis controlling for tumor burden and staging. CONCLUSION: The biomarker panel at diagnosis established prognosis for LDT response and stratified 1-year HCC progression risk. AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP profiling isolated aggressive HCC biology at diagnosis and may have important implications in post-LDT surveillance and transplant wait time.