Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To identify factors, available at the time of trauma admission, associated with the development of chronic pain to allow testing of preventive approaches. METHODS: In a retrospective observational cohort study, we included all patients ≥ 18 years old admitted for injury in 57 adult trauma centers in the province of Quebec (Canada) between 2004 and 2014. Chronic pain was defined as follows: treated in a chronic pain clinic, diagnosed with chronic pain, or received at least 2 prescriptions of chronic pain medications 3 to 12 months postinjury. RESULTS: A total of 95,134 patients were retained for analysis. Mean age was 59.8 years (±21.7), and 52% were men. The causes of trauma were falls (63%) and motor vehicle accidents (22%). We identified 14,518 patients (15.3%; 95% CI: 15.1-15.5) who developed chronic pain. After controlling for confounding factors, the variables associated with chronic pain were spinal cord injury (OR = 3.9; 95% CI: 3.4-4.6), disc-vertebra trauma (OR = 1.6; 95% CI: 1.5-1.7), history of alcoholism (OR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.2-1.7), history of anxiety (OR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.2-1.5), history of depression (OR = 1.3; 95% CI: 1.1-1.4), and being female (OR = 1.3; 95% CI: 1.2-1.3). The area under the receiving operating characteristic curve derived from the model was 0.80. CONCLUSIONS: We identified risk factors present on hospital admission that can predict trauma patients who will develop chronic pain. These factors should be prospectively validated.