Abstract
BACKGROUND: despite fall history being a well-known risk factor for falls and fractures, the association between very recent falls and imminent fracture risk is not clearly elucidated. OBJECTIVE: to study the very recent (<4 months) fall-related absolute risk of fractures in the following year. METHODS: two large prospective cohort studies of women (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF]) and men (Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study [MrOS]) aged 65 years or older were included. Data on falls were collected every 4 months, and the primary outcomes were any non-spine and hip fractures in the next 12 months. RESULTS: a total of 9,704 women contributed 419,149, and 5,994 men contributed 223,885 four-monthly periods of observations during the 14.8-year SOF and 12.6-year MrOS follow-up. Falls within 4 months indicated a high risk of non-spine and hip fractures in the following year for both sexes; in women, a recent fall indicated an 8.1% absolute risk of a non-spine fracture within 1 year, a 2.5-fold higher risk than that in women without falls, a 2.5% absolute risk of hip fracture, and a 3.1-fold increased risk. Falls increased the risk of fractures regardless of whether a fracture occurred or not. Men had similar risk patterns, albeit with a lower absolute risk of fracture. CONCLUSIONS: in older people, a fall within 4 months indicates a high risk of fracture in the next year, regardless of fracture occurrence. A recent fall warrants urgent evaluation and consideration of treatments to reduce the imminent risk of fractures.