Abstract
PURPOSE: The study projects the potential impact of COVID-19 on child marriage in the five countries in which the burden of child marriage is the largest: Bangladesh, Brazil, Ethiopia, India, and Nigeria. METHODS: The projected impact of the pandemic on child marriage is based on a Markov model. A review of empirical and theoretical literature informed construction and parameter estimates of five pathways through which we expect an elevated marriage hazard: death of a parent, interruption of education, pregnancy risk, household income shocks, and reduced access to programs and services. Models are produced for an unmitigated scenario and a mitigated scenario in which effective interventions are applied to reduce the impact. RESULTS: The total number of excess child marriages in these five countries could range from 3.5 million to 4.9 million in the unmitigated scenario and from 1.8 million to 2.7 million in the mitigated scenario. The elevated risk compared with the baseline projection would continue until 2035. CONCLUSIONS: These projections represent the impact in five countries that account for 50% of child marriages globally, implying that if similar patterns hold, we might expect the number of excess child marriages due to the pandemic to reach 7 million to 10 million globally. These estimates are necessarily subject to high levels of uncertainty because of limited evidence on the impacts in relation to child marriage and for parameter estimates. It will likely take years to understand the full impact of the pandemic. Despite these limitations, the potential for harm is unquestionably large.