Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The Baveno VII consensus recommends endoscopic screening for varicose veins in cases of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥ 20 kPa or platelet count ≤ 150 × 10(9)/L. Whether this approach was appropriate for patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) remains uncertain. This study expanded the observed risk factors by adding analysis of ultrasound images as a non-invasive tool to predict the risk of esophageal or fundic varices. METHODS: We enrolled 111 patients with PBC whose complete ultrasound images, measurement data, and LSM data were available. The value of the periportal hypoechoic band (PHB), splenic area, and LSM in determining the risk of varicose veins and variceal rupture was analyzed. A prospective cohort of 67 patients provided external validation. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting varicose veins using LSM > 12.1 kPa or splenic areas > 41.2 cm(2) was 0.806 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.720-0.875) and 0.852 (95% CI: 0.772-0.912), respectively. This finding could assist in avoiding endoscopic screening by 76.6% and 83.8%, respectively, with diagnostic accuracy surpassing that suggested by Baveno VII guidelines. The AUCs for predicting variceal rupture using splenic areas > 56.8 cm(2) was 0.717 (95% CI: 0.623-0.798). The diagnostic accuracy of PHB for variceal rupture was higher than LSM and splenic areas (75.7% vs. 50.5% vs. 68.5%). CONCLUSION: We recommend LSM > 12.1 kPa as a cutoff value to predict the risk of varicosity presence in patients with PBC. Additionally, the splenic area demonstrated high accuracy and relevance for predicting varicose veins and variceal rupture, respectively. The method is simple and reproducible, allowing endoscopy to be safely avoided. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: The measurement of the splenic area and identification of the periportal hypoechoic band (PHB) on ultrasound demonstrated high accuracy and relevance for predicting the risk of esophageal or fundic varices presence and variceal rupture, respectively. KEY POINTS: Predicting varices in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) can reduce the morbidity and mortality of gastrointestinal hemorrhage. Transient elastography (TE) and ultrasound play an important role in predicting patients with PBC with varices. TE and ultrasound can predict varicose veins and variceal rupture. Liver stiffness measurement and splenic area measurements can allow endoscopy to be safely avoided.