Abstract
PURPOSE: To establish and verify a comprehensive prognostic nomogram for predicting survival outcomes and improving the prognosis for non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Our retrospective study screened 613 cases of non-metastatic NPC who received radiotherapy from July 2012 to December 2016. A reliable nomogram was formulated for predicting overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) using all independent predictors selected by Cox regression analysis. A comparison is conducted between the current staging and the predictive performance of the nomogram. Internal validation was performed in a single center using the validation cohort to assess predictive accuracy and discrimination. RESULTS: High-density lipoprotein cholesterol, Epstein-Barr virus DNA and lactate dehydrogenase were determined to be valuable predictive indicators for predicting OS and PFS. Triglycerides were a valuable predictive indicator for predicting OS. Calibration curves demonstrated that the nomogram had remarkable correspondence between the prediction outcomes and the actual observations. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed that the nomogram had greater area under the curve and more satisfactory discrimination capability than the current TNM staging. Decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram had high net clinical benefits. Significant differences were observed when low- and high-risk groups were stratified via Kaplan-Meier curves. CONCLUSION: Our proposed nomogram combining lipid metabolic markers and lactate dehydrogenase could assist clinicians in the accurate prognostic prediction of non-metastatic NPC patients and provide personalized treatment recommendations.