Discussion
Our results indicate that a significant component of rs dynamics, comprising approximately 13% of observed variability in GE, is driven by recent metal exposures. These findings emphasize the need to estimate and control for the influence of past and current chemical exposures in the assessment and analysis of rs functional connectivity.
Methods
We implemented an interpretable XGBoost-shapley additive explanation (SHAP) model that integrated information from multiple exposure biomarkers to predict rs dynamics in typically developing adolescents. In 124 participants (53% females, ages, 13-25 years) enrolled in the public health impact of metals exposure (PHIME) study, we measured concentrations of six metals (manganese, lead, chromium, copper, nickel, and zinc) in biological matrices (saliva, hair, fingernails, toenails, blood, and urine) and acquired rs-fMRI scans. Using graph theory metrics, we computed global efficiency (GE) in 111 brain areas (Harvard Oxford atlas). We used a predictive model based on ensemble gradient boosting to predict GE from metal biomarkers, adjusting for age and biological sex.
Results
Model performance was evaluated by comparing predicted versus measured GE. SHAP scores were used to evaluate feature importance. Measured versus predicted rs dynamics from our model utilizing chemical exposures as inputs were significantly correlated (p < 0.001, r = 0.36). Lead, chromium, and copper contributed most to the prediction of GE metrics.