Abstract
Background: A less effective nomogram for patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to predict overall survival (OS) is available. This study aimed to investigate the role of age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelet (aMAP) scores in the prognosis of patients with intermediate-stage HCC and develop an aMAP score-based nomogram to predict OS. Methods: Data on newly diagnosed intermediate-stage patients with HCC at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between January 2007 and May 2012 were retrospectively collected. Independent risk factors affecting prognosis were selected by multivariate analyses. The optimal cut-off value for the aMAP score was determined using X-tile. The survival prognostic models were presented by the nomogram. Results: For the 875 patients with intermediate-stage HCC included, the median OS was 22.2 months (95% CI 19.6-25.1). Patients were classified into three groups by X-tile plots (aMAP score < 49.42; 49.42 ≤ aMAP score < 56; aMAP score ≥ 56). Alpha-fetoprotein, lactate dehydrogenase, aMAP score, diameter of main tumor, number of intrahepatic lesions, and treatment regimen were independent risk factors for prognosis. A predicted model was constructed with a C-index of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.68-0.72) in the training goup, and its 1-, 3-, and 5-year area under the receiver operating curve were: 0.75, 0.73, and 0.72. The validation group of the C-index is 0.82. Calibration graphs showed good consistency between the actual and predicted survival rates. The decision curve analysis suggested the clinical utility of the model, which may help clinicians guide clinical decision-making. Conclusion: The aMAP score was an independent risk factor for intermediate-stage HCC. The aMAP score-based nomogram has good discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.