Abstract
The potential for a non-native plant species to invade a new habitat depends on broadscale factors such as climate, local factors such as nutrient availability, and the biotic community of the habitat into which the plant species is introduced. We developed a spatially explicit model to assess the risk of expansion of a floating invasive aquatic plant species (FAV), the water hyacinth (Pontederia crassipes), an invader in the United States, beyond its present range. Our model used known data on growth rates and competition with a native submersed aquatic macrophyte (SAV). In particular, the model simulated an invasion into a habitat with a mean annual temperature different from its own growth optimum, in which we also simulated seasonal fluctuations in temperature. Twenty different nutrient concentrations and eight different temperature scenarios, with different mean annual amplitudes of seasonal temperature variation around the mean of the invaded habitat, were simulated. In each case, the ability of the water hyacinth to invade and either exclude or coexist with the native vegetation was determined. As the temperature pattern was changed from tropical towards increasingly cooler temperate levels, the competitive advantage shifted from the tropical FAV to the more temperate SAV, with a wide range in which coexistence occurred. High nutrient concentrations allowed the coexistence of FAV, even at cooler annual temperatures. But even at the highest nutrient concentrations in the model, the FAV was unlikely to persist under the current climates of latitudes in the Southeastern United States above that of Northern Alabama. This result may have some implications for where control efforts need to be concentrated.