Abstract
BACKGROUND: Lymph node status can predict the prognosis of patients with rectal cancer treated with surgery. Thus, we sought to establish a standard for the minimum number of lymph nodes (LNs) examined in patients with rectal cancer by evaluating the probability that pathologically negative LNs prove positive during surgery. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We extracted information of 31,853 patients with stage I-III rectal carcinoma registered between 2004 and 2013 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and divided them into two groups: the first group was SURG, including patients receiving surgery directly and the other group was NEO, encompassing those underwent neo-adjuvant therapy. Using a beta-binomial model, we developed nodal staging score (NSS) based on pT/ypT stage and the number of LNs retrieved. RESULTS: In both cohorts, the false-negative rate was estimated to be 16% when 12 LNs were examined, but it dropped to 10% when 20 LNs were evaluated. In the SURG cohort, to rule out 90% possibility of false staging, 3, 7, 28, and 32 LNs would be necessarily examined in patients with pT1-4 disease, respectively. While in the NEO cohort, 4, 7, 12, and 16 LNs would be included for examination in patients with ypT1-4 disease to guarantee an NSS of 90%. CONCLUSION: By determining whether a rectal cancer patient with negative LNs was appropriately staged, the NSS model we developed in this study may assist in tailoring postoperative management.