Abstract
BACKGROUND: Triglyceride and glucose (TyG) index, a surrogate marker of insulin resistance, has been validated as a predictor of cardiovascular disease. However, effects of TyG-related indices combined with obesity markers on cardiovascular diseases remained unknown. We aimed to investigate the associations between TyG index and modified TyG indices with new-onset cardiovascular disease and the time-dependent predictive capacity using a national representative cohort. METHODS: This study is a retrospective observational cohort study using data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) of 7 115 participants. The TyG index was calculated as Ln [fasting triglyceride (mg/dL) × fasting glucose (mg/dL)/2]. The modified TyG indices were developed combining TyG with body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR). We used adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression to analyze the association and predictive capacity based on hazard ratio (HR) and Harrell's C-index. RESULTS: Over a 7-year follow-up period, 2136 participants developed cardiovascular disease, including 1633 cases of coronary heart disease and 719 cases of stroke. Compared with the lowest tertile group, the adjusted HR (95% CI) for new-onset cardiovascular disease in the highest tertile for TyG, TyG-BMI, TyG-WC, and TyG-WHtR were 1.215 (1.088-1.356), 1.073 (0.967-1.191), 1.078 (0.970-1.198), and 1.112 (1.002-1.235), respectively. The C-indices of TyG index for cardiovascular disease onset were higher than other modified TyG indices. Similar results were observed for coronary heart disease and stroke. CONCLUSION: TyG and TyG-WhtR were significantly associated with new-onset cardiovascular diseases, and TyG outperformed the modified TyG indices to identify individuals at risk of incident cardiovascular event.