Abstract
PURPOSE: To analyze the impact of the pandemic on trends in cataract surgical volume in 2020 in a high-volume tertiary care academic center in North India. METHODS: The monthly cataract surgical volume for a large, high-volume, tertiary care academic center in North India was obtained from January 2018 through December 2020. Based on historical trends, we used time-series forecasting, probability sensitivity analysis, and linear regression models to estimate what the expected monthly cataract volume should have been from March 2020 onward. RESULTS: In 2020, we expected to perform 7500 cases (assuming historical trends) but performed only 2500 cases (33% of the expected volume). The remaining 5000 cases (67% cases) constituted the "fixed" backlog. Assuming the ramp-up in cataract surgical volume starts in January 2021, results of the Monte Carlo simulation revealed that for our system, it would take on average 5 months (May 2021) under the optimistic scenario and 10 months (October 2021) under the ambivalent scenario to reach pre-pandemic expected surgical volume. There would be a collective backlog of 5500 cases under the optimistic scenario (8.8 months' worth of cases) and a collective backlog of 6900 cases under the ambivalent scenario (11 months' worth of cases). CONCLUSION: An intuitive approach and out-of-the-box solutions are required by the government and private institutes' collaborative efforts to help mitigate the disruptions caused by the pandemic and lessen the backlog without causing provider burnout.